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More About Blackjack Odds

By learning to calculate blackjack odds and using this to inform their strategy, the house edge can be lowered or even completely overcome. Of course, it is not as simple as all that in practice.

• Calculating blackjack odds is relatively complicated and takes some focus and determination. There are also many extra factors to consider, such as the individual house rules and the number of card decks in play.
• Even with perfect strategy, an element of luck always applies and there is never a guarantee of winning any particular hand. In the end, successful blackjack players are those who have the patience to use the odds to their advantage over time. Rather than making big flashy bets, focus on smaller wins over time. Slow and steady wins this race.

Understanding Blackjack Odds

You have likely seen both odds and probability used when blackjack is discussed. Both of these words refer to the likelihood of an event happening or not happening. Many people find it easier to understand probability since it is expressed as a percentage, while odds are displayed as a ratio.

Ultimately it makes little difference which format we choose to use, since every probability can be converted directly to odds and vice versa. In the interest of simplicity, when discussing blackjack odds we will use the probability percentages.

The basic premise of the game is to beat the dealer, not by getting 21 but by getting closer to 21 than they do. Both dealer and player want to avoid going bust by getting more than 21. Therefore, the two main things to consider are your chances of going bust when you take another card, and the same for the dealer.

Blackjack odds for players

Let’s take a look at the blackjack odds table, first as it applies to players. When looking at the total value of the two initial cards, you can use these probabilities to decide your next move. You can choose to hit for another card if the odds of going bust are lower, or stick with the two you have when the odds are higher. There are other options, such as double down or split, which we will look at later.

By looking at either end of the table, it is easy to understand the odds. With a total hand value less than 12, there is no single card that could make you go bust and the odds of doing so are therefore zero. At the other end, if the first two cards are blackjack, then of course taking any card would automatically bust the hand.

Blackjack odds for the dealer

The dealer has an automatic advantage because they take their turn second and can therefore base their move on the player’s hand as well as their own. Remember that the dealer only reveals their second card after the players have taken their turns. This advantage would be much higher, but the dealer has no choice but to hit when their hand is under 17.

Two rules commonly apply; the dealer must stand on a soft 17 (i.e. the hand contains an Ace that counts either as 1 or 11) or they must hit. On tables where the dealer must hit on a soft 17, the house edge increases slightly, despite the odds of going bust being slightly more.

This may be slightly counter-intuitive, but it makes mathematical sense. If a dealer must stand with a soft 17, there is no way for them to do better. Players can employ basic strategy and hit for a hand that beats 17. As long as they don’t go bust, in which case the house wins regardless, players stand a better chance of winning the hand if the dealer must stand on 17.

Odds of Winning Blackjack

The basic outcomes in blackjack are win, lose or draw (this is known as ‘push’, and the player gets their wager returned to them without any extra winnings). The basic odds of each outcome are as follows:

• Win – 42.22%
• Push – 8.48%
• Lose – 49.1%

These odds can be significantly affected by several different factors, including the house rules, the variant being played, and whether the player employs an effective strategy. In many cases, it is enough to know the bust odds for both player and dealer, and base your decision to hit or stick on those odds. However, there are some situations where it’s not so obvious which decision to make. Let’s consider some of the trickier hands and look at what to do in these circumstances.

12 vs the dealer’s 4

When you have a 12, it’s pretty much always a bad starting hand. When the dealer’s up card is a 4, the odds are so close that it’s very hard to call. Conventional blackjack wisdom dictates that you stand, hoping that the dealer will bust – as you can see from the table above, the chances of this happening are 40%.

There is just one exception to this rule, which is when you are playing with six decks or less and one of the cards in your hand has a value of ten. In that case, it is fractionally preferable to risk busting and hit. If you have 12 and the dealer is showing 2 or 3, then it’s better to hit just once and then stick.

Hard 16

In most cases you should stand on a hard 16, but if the dealer has 7 or 8 then you can hit. When the dealer’s up card is 9 or 10, you have a choice to hit or surrender – if the latter is an option at that table. While the dealer in this case has a relatively high chance of busting, the chance of beating your 16 is higher still.

15 vs the dealer’s 10

This is almost always a losing hand, with the chances of winning when you hit being 22% compared to 23% when you stand. In this case the odds are so much against you that it’s probably best to take that slightly higher risk and hit. If your 15 is an 8/7 combo, then there is a slight mathematical advantage when you hit. Again, you could surrender in this case if that is permitted.

Splitting low pairs

Starting simple – always split a pair of aces, and never split a pair of fives, no matter what the dealer’s up card is. If you have a pair of fours, you can split if the dealer is showing a 5 or a 6. Pairs of twos, threes and sixes are a little more complicated. In general, you don’t split these pairs, except under the following circumstances:

• Pair of twos/threes/sixes: split on dealer 2 – 6
• Pair of twos/threes: split on dealer 7
• Pair of sixes: split on dealer <7, hit on dealer >7

There are a lot more rules and guidelines on if and when to split pairs. For example, it is never recommended to split a pair of tens because the only way the dealer can beat your pair is with 21. Eights and aces, on the other hand, should always be split. A pair of eights will always lose unless the dealer busts, and so splitting them makes more sense. Combining an ace with any ten-value card will give you blackjack, so it is always worth splitting them.

Understanding Blackjack House Edge

The house edge (sometimes known as the house advantage) is built into every game. It is the statistical certainty that, over time, the casino will come out on top. The expression ‘the house always wins’ is accurate when you look at the bigger picture. However, there are a couple of mitigating factors to consider:

1. House edge is calculated over long time periods, and in the shorter term a player can definitely win more than they lose.
2. In blackjack, engaging a good strategy can dramatically reduce the house advantage.

How the House Edge Can Change

When you play without any strategy at all, the blackjack house edge is around 2%. What does this really mean? It means that, on average, a player will lose £2 for every £100 that they wager. With a good strategy we can bring that right down, to 0.5% or even less. Some even claim that the right strategy can result in a negative house edge, in other words give the player a mathematical advantage – although this claim remains to be proven.

How Rules and Variants Affect the House Edge

Blackjack odds and house edge are quite variable, and much depends on the individual rules or variant of the game. Advanced players will take rule variations into account when deciding on a strategy. Those who are less experienced can refer to a strategy guide that matches the version of the game that they would like to play. Here are some of those rules and what they mean for the house edge:

• Soft 17 – if the dealer has to hit on a soft 17, the house edge goes up by around 0.2%
• Splitting and re-splitting – the fewer restrictions there are on splitting and re-splitting, the lower the house edge should be.
• Number of decks in play – eight decks is the standard for most online casinos today. The fewer decks in play, the more advantage to the player. In games with fewer decks, the casino compensates by introducing more rules that push the house edge up again.
• Payouts – some casinos push up the house edge by awarding less favourable payouts on a natural blackjack.

These are just some of the rule variations that can affect house edge and therefore strategy. It can take time to learn how to use the blackjack odds to inform your strategic play. For this reason, it is always advisable to try and find free demo versions of online blackjack where you can practice without risking any cash. Once you have become competent at using a strategy, then it is time to play for real.

Written by: Petricia Everly petricia@newcasinouk.com newcasinouk.com

Petricia Everly is an online writer who writes about the world of online gambling exclusively for NewCasinoUK.com. She is particularly interested in online slots, exploring the themes of identity, justice, and the power of luck in her work. Her writing style is unique, combining elements of realism, fantasy, and humour.